Paraguay decider carries a strange safety net

Win or draw, a narrow loss works too

Australia go into Friday's Group D decider against Paraguay with a strange cushion: a small defeat could still send the Socceroos through. A supercomputer analysis has your team advancing even with a loss, provided the margin stays tight (1).

The maths is kinder than the mood. A 2–0 loss to the United States stung, and the selection calls that framed it still linger.

Popovic's keeper call defines the week

Maty Ryan has not hidden his frustration. The captain was benched for youngster Patrick Beach against the US, a decision Tony Popovic made on a "gut feeling." Ryan went public with his disappointment. That tension sits in the squad heading into Friday.

Almirón sits out, red card history

Paraguay will be without their best player. Miguel Almirón is suspended after receiving a historic red card under FIFA's new rule banning players from covering their mouths while speaking to officials. Jackson Irvine backed the rule publicly, now he faces a Paraguay midfield missing its engine. Diego Gómez and Matías Galarza are expected to step in for Gustavo Alfaro's side (2) (3).

Group D on a knife edge

Beat Paraguay and you are through. Draw and you are through. Lose narrowly and the supercomputer says you probably still go through, but nobody in the squad wants to test that. Jason Geria, playing his club football in Japan's third tier, embodies the depth Popovic might need to call on again.

Friday decides it.