Paraguay's group finale against Australia is win and in

Paraguay face Australia with the knockouts on the line Thursday

This is it. Paraguay meet Australia in the final group stage match Thursday, and the equation is simple: win and you are through to the round of 16 without needing help from anywhere else (4). The match kicks off simultaneously with Turkiye vs USA on the other side of the group (1) (3).

Alfaro: confident, not dependent

Gustavo Alfaro knows the stakes. "Although a win is needed to not depend on other results, the Paraguay coach showed confidence ahead of the third group stage match" (4). He is not asking his players to watch the other scoreboard. Beat Australia and the math takes care of itself.

Australia forced into changes

The Socceroos are not at full strength. Australia have been forced into lineup changes for the decisive group game against Paraguay, with Jacob Italiano and Mat Leckie among the names in the frame (2). Paraguay's disciplined defensive structure, which frustrated Turkiye in the 1–0 win, gets a disrupted opponent.

USA plan heavy rotation against Turkiye

Mauricio Pochettino has hinted at mass changes for the USA's finale against Turkiye (3). That match runs alongside Paraguay vs Australia. A heavily rotated USMNT side could tilt the group dynamics. Turkiye are already eliminated after the 1–0 loss to Paraguay, but a reshuffled USA lineup opens possibilities.

Fan reactions

Paraguay fans are doing the third-place math. With Bosnia and Herzegovina already locking up a knockout spot as one of the best third-placed teams, attention has turned to which groups will send a third-placed side through. A Paraguay supporter noted on Reddit that the Australia/Paraguay group is one of the ones still in play for that route, though a win would make the arithmetic irrelevant. See the full discussion on r/soccer.